Private access before public launch
One probability per question on the Fed, inflation, jobs, energy and elections. Weighted by the money behind each price, scored for how far you can trust it, and recorded so you can check us later. For funds, professional traders, research teams and newsrooms.
A prediction-market price tells you what people expect to happen. It doesn't tell you how much money stands behind that view. Two prices can look identical and mean very different things.
chance, according to the price
$200,000 waiting to trade near the price
chance, according to the price
$800 waiting to trade near the price
Each square is $1,000 of orders. Simplified illustration, not live data.
For each question: our probability, how it moved, and how far to trust it. Open one to see the evidence and where the venues' rules differ.
Product preview. Questions and numbers are illustrations, not live data.
Every price gets a score from 0 to 100, built from six documented measures with fixed weights. Every score carries its method version, so you can see why a market scored the way it did.
out of 100 for this market
Row height is the measure's weight. Bar length is how this market scored on it. The filled area is the trust score. Illustration of method v1.
Every probability we publish goes into a ledger where each entry carries the fingerprint of the one before. Change an old call and the chain no longer checks out. Corrections are added as new, dated entries. Try it.
| Entry | Published | Question | Call | Points to | Fingerprint | Check |
|---|
Illustrative entries. Fingerprints are real SHA-256 hashes computed in your browser.
Is the market's probability of a cut backed by real money, or by two accounts?
One probability and a trust score you can put in a note, with the method behind it.
How deep is the book behind this price, and has the volume been churned?
Depth, activity, concentration and wash-trading checks for every market. No picks and no alerts to chase.
Which of these numbers can I defend to an investment committee?
A documented, versioned method and a record of every call, scored when the market resolves.
Is this number fit to quote?
A plain trust score for each price, so you can tell a market from a rumour.
What do markets imply about the next policy decision, and how solid is it?
One probability per question for the Fed, inflation, jobs, energy and elections, with the evidence.
We never trade.
No venue, no positions, no execution. Nothing to gain from where a price goes.
Every score shows its working.
Documented measures, fixed weights and a version number, with the method's known limits.
The misses stay on the record.
Every call is scored when its market resolves.
No picks.
Probabilities and evidence. The decision is yours.